At which stage of each of the Milankovitch Cycles are we in right now? Use the common era calendar to calculate when each cycle began? Which of these cycles are currently ending?

This is an excellent question that gets to the heart of how these astronomical cycles work.


It's important to understand first that these cycles are continuous and sinusoidal (like smooth, repeating waves), not linear with a definitive "start" and "end" point. Therefore, we talk about our position within each cycle rather than when a cycle "began" or is "ending."


Here is the current status of each Milankovitch Cycle, explained using the Common Era (CE) calendar.


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1. Eccentricity (Orbital Shape)


· Cycle Period: ~100,000 years (varying between more circular and more elliptical)

· Our Current Stage: We are in a period of low eccentricity, meaning Earth's orbit is nearly circular.

  · This is a long-term trend. Our orbit has been becoming less elliptical for tens of thousands of years and is currently very close to its most circular state.

· Is it ending? No. We are not at a peak or trough that would signify a dramatic "end." We are in a gradual phase of the cycle. The current low eccentricity minimizes the influence of the other cycles.

· "Start Date" Calculation: This is not a meaningful concept for a 100,000-year cycle. However, to illustrate the timescale: the last major peak in eccentricity (a more elliptical orbit) was approximately 50,000 years ago (or ~48,000 BCE).


2. Obliquity (Axial Tilt)


· Cycle Period: ~41,000 years (varying between ~22.1° and 24.5°)

· Our Current Stage: The Earth's axial tilt is currently about 23.4° and decreasing.

  · We are about halfway down from the last maximum tilt of ~24.5°, which occurred roughly 10,700 years ago (around 8,700 BCE).

· Is it ending? No. We are in the middle of the decreasing phase. The next minimum (tilt of ~22.1°) is projected to occur in about 9,800 years.

· "Start Date" Calculation: If we arbitrarily call the last peak the "start" of the current decreasing phase, it began around 8,700 BCE.


3. Precession (Axial Wobble)


· Cycle Period: ~26,000 years (a full wobble)

· Our Current Stage: We are in a phase where the Northern Hemisphere experiences summer when Earth is farthest from the Sun (aphelion) and winter when closest (perihelion).

  · This results in slightly milder Northern Hemisphere summers and more intense winters, which is a configuration that, in the long term, can favor ice sheet growth.

· Is it ending? No. We are roughly halfway through the cycle. The last time the configuration was opposite (strong NH summers) was about 11,000 years ago (~9,000 BCE). The cycle will complete its full wobble around ~15,000 CE.

· "Start Date" Calculation: If we consider the last major precessional shift (the point that led to the end of the last ice age) as a marker, it was centered around 11,000 years ago (~9,000 BCE).


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Summary and Key Takeaway


Cycle Our Current Stage Trend Next "Milestone" Are we at an "end"?

Eccentricity Very Low (Circular Orbit) Very slowly decreasing Minimum in ~400 years No

Obliquity ~23.4° Decreasing Minimum in ~9,800 years No

Precession NH summer at aphelion Ongoing wobble Full cycle in ~15,000 years No


Crucial Conclusion:


None of the Milankovitch Cycles are currently "ending." More importantly, based on the natural positions of these cycles, the Earth should be in a very slow cooling trend, heading towards a new ice age in tens of thousands of years.


The fact that the planet is warming rapidly, not cooling, underscores that the current climate change is overwhelmingly driven by human activities (greenhouse gas emissions), not by these slow astronomical cycles. The natural cycles are currently being overridden by anthropogenic forcing.

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